Sales in the oil market

Análises dos mercados financeiros e de commodities

Market Watch review. 23.04.2021

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • Three reasons for panic in the oil market.
  • Weakening of the US dollar.
  • ECB interest rates.
  • Gold at $1800 per ounce.

If the previous two releases we started out optimistic, today will not be the case, especially if you have been buying oil. In fact, in just three trading days, the price of US WTI crude oil collapsed by almost $4, compensating for much of the growth of the previous two weeks. There is no panic in the black gold market yet, but there are enough reasons for a more powerful wave of decline to develop.

I will start with an increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus in India and Japan. As India remains one of the largest oil consumers, the tight restrictions within the country are extremely negative for oil.

I will also note the unexpected increase in oil reserves in the United States. The growth is quite small, less than 0.5 million barrels, but in this case it is necessary to take into account the projected reduction in reserves by almost 4.5 million barrels. Therefore, the difference between the expected and actual values of about 5 million barrels is a lot.

Against this background, there appears a third bearish fundamental factor for the oil market - exports from Iran, which, according to Petro-Logistics, reached 0.5 million barrels per day. All this may have a longer-term negative effect on oil prices.

Shifting to the foreign exchange market, I will note the general weakness of the American currency. Despite a significant decrease in the activity of the sellers of the US dollar, there is still a risk of further weakening. The US dollar is supported by epidemiological situation in India. After all, the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases raises doubts about the ability of the world economy to recover quickly and grow further. But the rapid flow of financial liquidity provided by the Fed and the US government is keeping the US dollar in the red zone.

Also I would like to draw your attention to the main event of yesterday - the ECB's decision to leave the main interest rate as well as the lending and deposit rates unchanged. Yes, it is an expected decision of the European regulator, which does not often surprise us with unexpected changes in monetary policy. Much more often they use verbal interventions, loudly declaring their intentions or willingness to act decisively if necessary.

And at the end of today's review, I will note a moderate increase in gold prices. For the first time since February, the price of this precious metal approached the level of $1,800 per ounce. And only a further increase in the risks associated with the pandemic, as well as the stability of payments under the financial assistance program for people and businesses in the United States, can provide the necessary support to gold buyers. Otherwise, there is a high probability of a price collapse.

Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.ф